According to data released on the website of the Agricultural Bank of Russia a few days ago, the consumption of chocolate by the Russian people in 2020 will drop by 10% year-on-year. At the same time, China’s chocolate retail market in 2020 will be approximately 20.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2 billion yuan. Under the trend of people in the two countries pursuing a healthy lifestyle, dark chocolate may be the growth point of the people’s demand in the future.

Andrei Darnov, the head of the Industrial Appraisal Center of the Agricultural Bank of Russia, said: “There are two reasons for the decline in chocolate consumption in 2020. On the one hand, it is due to the shift of public demand to cheaper chocolate candies, and on the other hand, the shift to cheaper chocolate candies. More nutritious food containing flour and sugar.”

Experts predict that in the next few years, the Russian people’s chocolate consumption will remain at the level of 6 to 7 kilograms per capita per year. Products with a high cocoa content of more than 70% may be more promising. As people live healthier lifestyles, the demand for such products may increase.

Analysts pointed out that by the end of 2020, Russia’s chocolate production has fallen by 9% to 1 million tons. In addition, candy factories are turning to cheaper raw materials. Last year, Russian imports of cocoa butter fell by 6%, while imports of cocoa beans increased by 6%. These raw materials cannot be produced in Russia.

At the same time, the export production of Russian chocolate is increasing. Last year, the supply to foreign countries increased by 8%. The main buyers of Russian chocolate are China, Kazakhstan and Belarus.

Not only Russia, but China’s chocolate retail market will also shrink in 2020. According to Euromonitor International’s data, the size of China’s chocolate retail market in 2020 was 20.43 billion yuan, a reduction of nearly 2 billion yuan compared with 2019, and the figure was 22.34 billion yuan in the previous year.

Euromonitor International Senior Analyst Zhou Jingjing believes that the 2020 epidemic has greatly reduced the demand for chocolate gifts, and offline channels have been blocked due to the epidemic, resulting in a decline in sales of impulsive consumer products such as chocolate.

Zhang Jiaqi, general manager of Barry Callebaut China, a manufacturer of chocolate and cocoa products, said: “The chocolate market in China will be particularly affected by the epidemic in 2020. Traditionally, weddings have promoted the sales of Chinese chocolate. However, with the new crown pneumonia epidemic, The declining birth rate in China and the emergence of late marriages, the wedding industry has been declining, which has had an impact on the chocolate market.”

Although chocolate has entered the Chinese market for more than 60 years, the overall Chinese chocolate product market is still relatively small. According to statistics from the China Chocolate Manufacturers Association, China’s annual per capita chocolate consumption is only 70 grams. The chocolate consumption in Japan and South Korea is about 2 kilograms, while the per capita chocolate consumption in Europe is 7 kilograms per year.

Zhang Jiaqi said that for most Chinese consumers, chocolate is not a daily necessity, and we can live without it. “The younger generation is looking for healthier products. In terms of chocolate, we continue to receive requests from customers to develop low-sugar chocolate, sugar-free chocolate, high-protein chocolate and dark chocolate.”

The Chinese market’s recognition of Russian chocolate is steadily increasing. According to statistics from the Russian Customs Service, China will become the largest importer of Russian chocolate in 2020, with an import volume of 64,000 tons, an increase of 30% year-on-year; the amount reached US$132 million, an increase of 17% year-on-year.

According to forecasts, in the medium term, China’s per capita chocolate consumption will not change much, but at the same time, the demand for chocolate will increase with the shift from quantity to quality: Chinese consumers are more and more willing to buy better ingredients and tastes. Better high-quality products.